Technical Analysis

USDCAD trades near lows in what has been a choppy trading week

Up and down choppy action this week.

The USDCAD is trading near the lows for the week at 1.3033. The low price reached a NY and day low at 1.30384. The current price is at 1.30497 area. That level represents the 50% midpoint of the range since November 9th.  

Looking at the hourly chart above, the pair traded at the high in the first hour of trading on Monday at 1.3134.  However, the 1.31157 to 1.31235 area (see green numbered circles) stalled the rallies on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 

Today, the 100 hour MA down at 1.3089 stalled the rally in the early Asian session (that MA is now at 1.3080 – see blue line in the chart above). The 200 hour MA is near that level at 1.30834. Staying below those levels for most of the day today, kept the sellers in control 

Like other pairs (see earlier technical posts today), the bias may be lower, but because of the up and down nature of the current market price action, there remains hurdles on the downside that can either hold support (and lead to a bounce) or be broken.  The 1.30258-1.30333 area is that support area now. That area would need to be broken to solicit more selling.  

So sellers against the 100 hour MA have benefitted today, and that has given the pair a negative bias (and the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA remain resistance). However, to trend more in the downward direction, the target support needs to be broken.  That support can easily stall falls and lead to a corrective move higher back toward the MAs.  Pick your poison, but respect the levels. They do help to define risk. 

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